Before opinions, predictions, or hot takes, it’s worth grounding ourselves in one clean reference point.

The chart above shows the MLS Home Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for the Greater Toronto Area, broken out by composite, single-family, and apartments.

The composite benchmark is the primary HPI reference, as it reflects a blended view across all property types.

This isn’t an average, a median, or a reflection of what happened to sell last month. It’s an apples-to-apples way of comparing home values over time, without the distortion from outliers or seasonality.

When we take a closer look, a few things are pretty clear:

That gap between “down from peak” and “still elevated historically” is where much of today’s confusion lives.

Did we already bottom out? Are we close to the bottom? Is it still ways away?

Unfortunately, this chart doesn’t tell us what will happen next. But it does give us a clean baseline for what has happened.

And that’s where any useful conversation about the market needs to start.

The last cycle wasn’t just about high prices. It was about how cheap money became, how long it stayed that way, and how abruptly it ended.

A 26% pullback from peak sounds dramatic in isolation, but it followed one of the fastest and most aggressive run-ups on record. The period between 2020 and early 2022 was historically intense, fueled by emergency-level interest rates, excess savings, injected stimulus, and a sudden reshuffling of how and where people wanted to live: out of the city and into cottage country.

For additional context, Canada’s overnight rate hit 3.00% in June 2008 and then stayed below that level for more than 12 years. That era ended abruptly in mid-2022 as borrowing costs rose at the fastest pace in decades. It was a dramatic reversal after more than a decade of ultra-low interest rates that helped reinforce the idea that “real estate only goes up.”

Since mid-2023, downward momentum has eased, but it hasn’t disappeared. The composite benchmark still trending downward. And although the market is no longer in free fall, it hasn’t found its footing either.

Some sellers are still anchored to peak pricing, while some buyers are waiting for prices to fall further. And a good chunk of people who thought about getting into real estate either can’t do it anymore, don’t think they’ll ever be able to do it, or don’t want anything to do with it all.

Part of that disconnect comes from how the market is often discussed. One headline touts ‘The bottom is Here!’ while another catastrophizes ‘This is just the Beginning’, reinforcing ideals that don’t reflect the reality of today’s market.

This “in-between” phase shows up less in prices and more in behaviour.

As of this writing, there are more than 3,300 freehold homes across the GTA have been sitting for 90+ days with some stretching over 500 days on market.

Buyers are cautious, not absent. They’re selective, slower to commit, and care more about value than winning a bid. Conditional offers are back (and I hope they are here to stay). Negotiations are longer and expected. Confidence depends less on headlines and more on monthly carrying costs.

Sellers, on the other hand, are often caught between two reference points: what their neighbour’s home sold for a few years ago, and what today’s buyers are actually willing (and able) to pay. That gap is where listings stall. Not because there’s no interest, but because price and payment expectations haven’t fully realigned. Balance is getting restored.

This phase isn’t unusual it just feels unfamiliar after how extreme the last cycle was. Pretty much everything feels unfamiliar after COVID.

In 2021, a massive share of listings cleared in the first week. Bidding wars became a ‘strategy’ for every listing, speed became the norm, and it wasn’t abnormal for folks to buy properties without seeing them.

Even today’s snow storm takes me back to February 2021… parked outside a listing, heater blasting, watching a line of buyers at the door in the cold and snow, waiting for their 30-minute showing block to make a $1.3 million dollar decision. Peak FOMO in action.

In 2025, the tempo was much different.

Last year, less than 4% of listings sold within the first week. Not because demand vanished, but because the market is no longer operating on urgency. It’s operating on math.

But for some folks, the math still ain’t mathin’.

That wraps up RAZZ Report #1. Hope it landed well, and hope your year is off to a great start!

If you missed the newsletter formerly known as Show & Sell, you’re officially caught up.

I’m always looking to make this sharper and more useful, so if you’ve got feedback or topics you’re curious about, send them my way. And don’t worry, I’ll be toning down the long and sappy intros.

And if you know someone who’d enjoy The RAZZ Report, forward it along. Best compliment in the world: “You should read and subscribe to this”

Best,

Jordan Buttarazzi